Interest: rates fall with the increase in foreign capital inflows and exchange rates

You costs Futures closed on mid- and long-term maturities, while short rates were flat on Monday with free time and liquidity compromised in the United States, where there was no trading in equities or stocks. ‘obligations.

The Interbank Deposit Agreement (ID) rate for January 2023 closed at 12.375% (regular) and 12.365% (extended) from 12.388% in Friday’s adjustments (Photo: Michelle Henderson/Unsplash)

Despite the maintenance of a climate of caution on the international scene with the crisis between Russia and the West, the prospect of an influx of outgoing flows supported by a Celik forecast above 12% continued to support both the exchange rate and interest rate corrections.

The interbank deposit (DI) rate for January 2023 closed at 12.375% (regular) and 12.365% (extended), from 12.388% in Friday’s adjustments, and the DI rate for January 2025 fell from 11.401% to 11, 34% (regular) and Got at 11:35. % (directrix extended).

The January 2027 DI closed at 11.21% (Regular) and 11.225% (Extended), with a rate of 11.311%. The forward curve closely followed the movement of the exchange rate, bottoming out when the dollar also bottomed for the day. About R$ 5.08. The real was once again the absolute draw between emerging currencies, mainly down against the dollar.

“Brazil has given way to everyone else, paying much higher interest than its peers, for example, 55% higher than Mexico,” points out André Parfito, chief economist at Necton Investimentos. Roberto Campos Neto, the president of the Central Bank, promoted by Canal Agro+, said that only in Brazil and Russia base interest rates are higher than the neutral rate. “Chile, Colombia and Mexico have been surprising lately with the action several times (stronger) than expected,” he said.

On Wednesday (24) the pull of the flow “intensifies” based on February’s IPCA-15. “The index should still be high,” says Perfect. In research by Projection Broadcast, the projection average is 0.87%, down from 0.58% in January. Over the 12 months, the median is 10.63%, compared to 10.20% in January.

The hypothesis is that the effect of the fall in the dollar on inflation is to some extent neutralized by the rise in raw materials. Oil prices rose between 2% and 3% amid geopolitical tensions. The Spot Dollar closed at R$5.1070 (-0.64%). In the afternoon, the exchange rate failed to stay below 5.10 reais, but today’s level is still considered surprising given the fundamentals of the economy.

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